The Class of 2028 National Merit cutoffs will be decided by this October's PSAT/NMSQT, but nobody knows them yet: NMSC sets each state's Semifinalist line after scoring every entrant, and it won't announce them until September 2027. What you can know now is where the line has actually been. This page lays out every state's real cutoff for the last two classes, how much the lines move, and every date between the October 2026 test and the 2028 scholarships.

If you took the PSAT/NMSQT as a junior this fall, you're in the Class of 2028 competition. The confirmed Class of 2027 cutoffs are last year's lines, not yours.

Class of 2028 National Merit cutoffs: what's known right now

Three things are fixed, per NMSC's own program pages for the 2028 competition:

  • The qualifying test is the 2026 PSAT/NMSQT, given October 1-30, 2026. The PSAT 10 and PSAT 8/9 don't count -- see which PSAT counts for National Merit.
  • More than 16,000 Semifinalists will be named in September 2027, less than 1% of the nation's graduating seniors, along with about 34,000 Commended Students. NMSC expects about 3.5 million students to take the 2026 PSAT/NMSQT and about 1.2 million of them to meet the entry requirements.
  • The cutoffs themselves aren't fixed in advance. Each state gets a share of the 16,000 Semifinalist slots based on its share of the nation's graduating seniors, and its cutoff is whatever Selection Index score most closely fills that share. It moves with how that state's juniors actually score.

So any "Class of 2028 cutoff" you see before September 2027 is a projection. The table below is real data from the last two cycles.

Last two years of National Merit cutoffs, by state

StateClass of 2027 cutoffClass of 2026 cutoffChange
Alaska208215-7
Montana208213-5
North Dakota208210-2
West Virginia208210-2
Wyoming208210-2
U.S. Territories208210-2
New Mexico209210-1
Utah209213-4
Alabama210214-4
Arkansas210215-5
Iowa210214-4
Oklahoma210212-2
South Dakota210211-1
Idaho211215-4
Kentucky211214-3
Louisiana211216-5
Mississippi211213-2
Nevada211214-3
Kansas212216-4
Nebraska212214-2
South Carolina212215-3
Vermont212216-4
Wisconsin212215-3
Rhode Island213219-6
Maine214217-3
Minnesota214219-5
Missouri214217-3
Tennessee214219-5
Arizona215218-3
Indiana215218-3
New Hampshire215219-4
Florida216219-3
Michigan216220-4
Ohio216219-3
Oregon216219-3
Colorado217219-2
Georgia217220-3
North Carolina217220-3
Hawaii218219-1
Illinois218222-4
Delaware219220-1
Pennsylvania219221-2
Texas219222-3
California220224-4
Connecticut220223-3
New York220223-3
Maryland221224-3
Massachusetts221225-4
Virginia221224-3
Washington221224-3
District of Columbia223225-2
New Jersey223225-2
Outside U.S.223225-2

Class of 2026 figures are derived from the Class of 2027 cutoff and its reported change. U.S. territories and students abroad are separate NMSC selection units, not states.

How much the cutoffs move from year to year

Every single state's cutoff fell from the Class of 2026 to the Class of 2027, by between 1 and 7 points. Alaska dropped the most (215 to 208), then Rhode Island (219 to 213). The national Commended cutoff fell from 210 to 208.

That's the practical reason not to treat last year's number as your target:

  • A 2-3 point swing is normal, and it can go either way. One year of across-the-board drops doesn't mean the Class of 2028 lines will fall again.
  • The size of the move varies a lot by state. Last cycle it ranged from 1 point (Delaware, Hawaii, New Mexico, South Dakota) to 7 (Alaska), so a neighboring state's change tells you little about yours.

If your Selection Index is 3 or more points above last year's line in your state, you're in a strong position. Within a couple of points either way, it's a genuine coin flip until September 2027.

How NMSC sets each state's line

NMSC's own description of the process, in short:

  1. It allocates Semifinalist slots by state, in proportion to each state's share of the nation's graduating seniors. A state with about 2% of graduating seniors gets about 320 Semifinalists (2% of 16,000).
  2. It ranks every eligible entrant in that state by Selection Index, highest first.
  3. The score at which the state's allocation is most closely filled becomes its cutoff. Everyone at or above it is a Semifinalist.

That's why the same score can qualify in one state and fall short in another. It also explains the separate units: D.C., U.S. commonwealths and territories, U.S. citizens at schools abroad, and U.S. boarding schools that enroll many out-of-state students each get their own line. You're considered in only one, based on the high school you're enrolled in when you take the test. For the formula itself, see how the Selection Index is calculated.

Class of 2028 National Merit timeline

WhenWhat happens
Oct 1-30, 2026PSAT/NMSQT testing window
Within 5 days of your testLast chance to ask NMSC not to use your score, if you felt the test went badly
Oct 22, Nov 5 or Nov 12, 2026Scores reach students, depending on when your school submitted answers -- see when PSAT scores come out
April 1, 2027Deadline to request Alternate Entry if you missed the test for illness or an emergency -- see missed the PSAT?
Spring 2027NMSC asks principals to confirm the eligibility of high scorers
September 2027Commended Students (about 34,000) and Semifinalists (16,000+) named; state cutoffs become known
October 15, 2027Last date to update your program records with NMSC
Fall 2027Semifinalists complete the Finalist application
Spring 2028Scholarships awarded

What this means for you

  • Check your score against last year's line, but read it as a range. Use the Selection Index calculator, then allow a couple of points either way.
  • Commended is a national line, Semifinalist is a state line. Last cycle, 208 was enough for Commended everywhere but only enough for Semifinalist in five states. See Commended vs. Semifinalist.
  • A "good" score for National Merit is different from a good PSAT score in general. College Board's own readiness benchmarks are far below National Merit territory -- see what counts as a good PSAT score.
  • Make sure you're actually entered. Your score report's NMSC section says whether your Selection Index will be considered. If it's wrong, NMSC takes corrections until October 15, 2027.
  • The payoff comes later, and mostly from colleges. A handful of schools give Finalists full tuition or more.

Sources